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May 19, 2025
Ten Provocative Graphs
The figures and data below are all hot of the press and shared to help get your weekend off to an intellectually stimulating start. Enjoy! The Earth is Darkening In a new posting, climate scientist James Hansen calls our attention to a “BFD”: Earth’s albedo (or reflectivity) is the portion (percent) of incoming solar radiation that…
May 14, 2025
The Future is Already Here Somewhere
One of the challenges, even for experts, in making sense of climate projections is that the scenarios underlying the projections are so complex as to be impenetrable without a lot of effort and expertise. Opaque assumptions make interpreting climate projections fraught with challenges and consequently, they are easily misinterpreted and misused. Today, I try to…
May 9, 2025
RIP NOAA’s Billion Dollar Disasters
Last June, my peer-reviewed paper on problems with NOAA’s Billion Dollar Disaster (BDD) tabulation was published. Today, NOAA announced that the BDD tabulation would no longer be updated by the agency, explaining that it has been “retired.” While some media have chosen to make the BDD retirement about the Trump administration, there has also been some excellent reporting indicating…
May 7, 2025
Ice Surprises
Earlier this week the New York Post asked me to help its readers make sense of some surprising new research on ice dynamics at both poles. The new research appears in a new peer-reviewed paper and a preprint that was just posted. At the South Pole, Wang et al. 2025 find a record accumulation of ice on the Antarctic…
May 7, 2025
The Underappreciated Importance of Climate Variability
One of the most pervasive misunderstandings of climate — even among some who publish on climate — is the belief that any long-term trend in a measured climate variable indicates a change in climate, as defined by the IPCC. In practice, “long-term” is often defined to be only a few decades worth of observations. Some…
May 1, 2025
The Iberian Blackout
I’ve spent some time this week looking into the massive blackout that struck Spain and Portugal a few days ago, and today I share some of what I’ve learned. I start with a short primer on grid operations and follow that with some initial thoughts on the significance of the Iberian blackout. The Financial Times explains what…
April 29, 2025
Constructing Climate Catastrophism
Today kicks off a new series here at THB — Making Sense of Climate Scenarios. I have three motivations for this series: This series is an exercise in transparency, with a goal to open up discussion about what sorts of scenarios should sit at the center of climate science and policy. Sometime in the coming weeks…
April 21, 2025
Trump Comes for Climate Research
Last week Politico published a scoop related to climate research under the Trump Administration: The Trump administration is canceling funding for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the entity that produces the federal government’s signature climate change study, according to three federal officials familiar with the move. The move, which had been widely expected, is a potentially fatal…
April 17, 2025
The New Rules for Experts
My friend and AEI colleague Tony Mills — director of the AEI Center for Technology, Science, and Energy — has been on a tear lately. Today, I share four of Tony’s essays published in the past month on public trust in science, reform of NIH, COVID’s long-term costs, and how virologists lost the gain-of-function debate. Enjoy, and see you…
April 15, 2025
Censorship is Anti-American
On March 25, Rumeysa Ozturk, a graduate student at Tufts University — “a Fulbright scholar working on a PhD in child study and human development on an F-1 student visa” — was detained by six plain clothes government officials as she walked down a Boston street. Yesterday, The Washington Post reported that a State Department memo, prepared…