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August 21, 2024
Billion Dollar Disasters: Not the Highest Standards
Last January, upon submission of my paper (since published) — Scientific integrity and U.S. “Billion Dollar Disasters” — I submitted a “request for correction” to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the agency’s policies for scientific integrity and information quality. Today, I heard back from NOAA and they largely agree with my concerns: “NOAA will…
August 19, 2024
What Did You Expect?
About 20,000 years ago, the world was in an ice age. The era is called the Last Glacial Maximum and had global sea levels more than 120 meters (~400 feet) lower than they are today, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). There was no North Sea, English Channel, or Persian Gulf, and Australia…
August 9, 2024
Joe Biden is the “Drill, Baby, Drill” President
I would guess that we are going to hear the phrase “drill, baby, drill” a lot in the next three months. Here at THB, one goal is to ensure that whatever our politics or views on policy, that we work hard to share a common understanding (or at least a shared understanding of disagreement) of…
August 2, 2024
We’ll Always Have Paris
In 2015, countries around the world met in Paris at the 21st Conference of Parties to the U.N Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) where they agreed to limit global temperature increases well below 2 degrees Celsius by 2100. We now have 8 years of data on global emissions following the “landmark” Paris Agreement. Today, I evaluate…
July 29, 2024
It’s All About the Base(line)
This is Part 5 in the THB series — Climate Fueled Extreme Weather. You can find Part 1 here, Part 2 here, Part 3 here, and Part 4 here. Each can be read on their own, but I encourage you to start from the beginning as each installment draws on the ones before. If you have made it this…
July 25, 2024
Why Climate Misinformation Persists
In 2001, I participated in a roundtable discussion hosted at the headquarters of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) with a group of U.S. Senators, the Secretary of Treasury, and about a half-dozen other researchers. The event was organized by Idaho Senator Larry Craig (R-ID) following the release of a short NAS report on climate to help…
July 22, 2024
We Don’t Need No Stinking Science
This is Part 4 in the THB series — Climate Fueled Extreme Weather. You can find Part 1 here Part 2 here and Part 3 here. Each can be read on their own, but I encourage you to start from the beginning as each installment draws on the ones before. Everyone knows that in recent years climate change has…
July 15, 2024
It’s Later Than You Think
Today, I discuss the concept of the “time of emergence” for the detection of a signal of a change in climate in observations and projections. Our early work in this area led to some surprising results (at least to me!) and profoundly shaped how I think about the detection and attribution of changes in the…
July 8, 2024
Schrödinger’s Climate Cat
In May, I testified before the Senate Budget Committee and summarized what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said about trends in drought. My testimony included the figure below showing a decrease in the areal extent of extreme drought conditions in the United States. I also included another figure that showed an increase in extreme drought conditions across the United States. Completing…
July 2, 2024
Climate Fueled Extreme Weather
It is now a ubiquitous cultural ritual to blame any and every weather event on climate change. Those hot days? Climate change. That hurricane? Climate change. The flood somewhere that I saw on social media? Climate change. With today’s post, the first in a series, I go beyond the cartoonish media caricatures of climate change,…