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November 19, 2024
In Support of Science Policy: My Long-Read Q&A with Tony Mills
The US government has acted as major contributor to science research since the mid-20th century, both in terms of broad basic research and targeted projects. As industrial policy has gained traction, especially during the Biden Administration, the distinction between industrial and science policy has become increasingly obscure. Hybrid policies like the CHIPS and Science Act have spurred…
October 28, 2024
Take the Under
In the Financial Times over the weekend, John Burn-Murdoch discussed how projections of global population keep decreasing: Burn-Murdoch concludes: [T]hese estimates are extremely fuzzy and based on frameworks that were true in the past but may not be today. Use them with caution, and probably err on the low side. Given how important population projections are for climate…
October 24, 2024
Climate Journalism Done Right
Today, The Washington Post has published a lengthy analysis titled, “The real reason billion-dollar disasters like Hurricane Helene are growing more common.”1 The article, by the Post’s Harry Stevens, is brilliantly done — extensively reported, data rich, grounded in a large body of research, with a wide diversity of voices. Watching reactions to the article will…
October 21, 2024
We Found an Excel File Online
A new paper is just out claiming that climate change is increasing the damage associated with U.S. hurricanes: “US hurricane damage, normalized for changes of inflation, population, and wealth, increases approximately 1% per year. For 1900–2022, 1% per year is equivalent to a factor of >3 increase, substantially but not entirely, attributable to climate change.” As they…
October 15, 2024
The “warming surge,” climate model biases, fewer Gulf hurricanes, and super shoes!
In 2024 it can be difficult to sort wheat from chaff in the peer-reviewed literature. There has always been better and worse science — that goes with the territory — but as I argued last week, we are now in an era of tactical research, with science curated to advance narratives over knowledge. That makes knowing…
July 11, 2024
The Refs Are Working Us
“Not true, Governor Romney.” President Barack Obama, widely considered to have lost his first debate against Mitt Romney thirteen days previously, was eager to defend his record. But Romney, having returned to familiar territory, was unwilling to concede the point. “In the last four years,” Romney had said, “you cut permits and licenses on federal…
January 2, 2024
The Arrival of Post-Industrial Society
There is a certain class of book, the members of which have the ambivalent honor of being remembered for encapsulating the era in which they were written. Such books typically straddle the line between scholarly tome and popular commentary, and are almost invariably purchased more often than read, cited more often than understood. Yet they…
November 20, 2023
A President’s Council On Artificial Intelligence
Last month, President Joe Biden issued an executive order on artificial intelligence. Among the longest in recent decades and encompassing directives to dozens of federal agencies and certain companies, the order is a decidedly mixed bag. It shrinks back from the most aggressive proposals for federal intervention but leaves plenty for proponents of limited government to fret…
July 21, 2023
The Masking Debate We Didn’t Have
“Mask Up DC” signs are still visible in the windows of some businesses around Washington, D.C. Are these signs public-health recommendations based on science, or just outdated reminders of a bygone pandemic era? Or could they be relics of a time when many mistakenly believed that masks were actually protecting us? That is the conclusion…
April 26, 2023
What Does “Scientific Progress” Mean, Anyway?
Last year, Congress passed the CHIPS and Science Act, which, besides shoring up the American semiconductor industry, also significantly increased federal spending on scientific research. Both the Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation came away with substantial boosts. The “and Science” part of the bill comes from the Endless Frontier Act, a bipartisan proposal from early…