What is a “Worst Case” Climate Scenario?
Article
The Honest Broker

What is a “Worst Case” Climate Scenario?

The implausibly extreme and hugely popular climate scenario RCP8.5 made it into President Trump’s executive order last week on “Restoring Gold Standard Science.” Ironically, the Trump administration’s characterization of RCP8.5…

The Politicization of Intelligence, Part 2
Article
The Honest Broker

The Politicization of Intelligence, Part 2

In Part 1 of this two-part series I discussed the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and its role iin synthesizing and summarizing intelligence from across the U.S. government’s intelligence gathering agencies. Today, in…

Atlantic Hurricanes Preseason 2025
Article
The Honest Broker

Atlantic Hurricanes Preseason 2025

There has been no tropical cyclone of hurricane strength anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere so far in 2025. If we get to June 5th — which looks quite possible if…

Twenty‑Five Years of Lessons on Electricity Competition in the United States
Article
Knowledge Problem

Twenty‑Five Years of Lessons on Electricity Competition in the United States

Why the Electricity Competition Debate Just Flipped—Again In 1998 California’s Power Exchange wholesale power market went live, symbolizing the then-new impetus for efficiency through electricity markets. The promise then was disarmingly…

Taking Institutional Neutrality Seriously on Campus
Article
The Honest Broker

Taking Institutional Neutrality Seriously on Campus

In 2024, Academic Freedom Alliance, Heterodox Academy, and the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression called for colleges and universities to formally adopt institutional neutrality, defined as: “When a contested social issue arises…

Heavy Metal
Article
THe Honest Broker

Heavy Metal

More than 7,000 years ago, humans first began mining copper. Since then, humans have mined more than 700 million tonnes. According to a fascinating study of the metals requirements of a…

The Politicization of Intelligence
Article
The Honest Broker

The Politicization of Intelligence

Last week, Tulsi Gabbard, appointed by President Trump as the Director of National Intelligence, fired the top two officials of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) after The Washington Post and the New York Times reported that…

Ten Provocative Graphs
Article
The Honest Broker

Ten Provocative Graphs

The figures and data below are all hot of the press and shared to help get your weekend off to an intellectually stimulating start. Enjoy! The Earth is Darkening In…

The Future is Already Here Somewhere
Article
The Honest Broker

The Future is Already Here Somewhere

One of the challenges, even for experts, in making sense of climate projections is that the scenarios underlying the projections are so complex as to be impenetrable without a lot…

RIP NOAA’s Billion Dollar Disasters
Article
The Honest Broker

RIP NOAA’s Billion Dollar Disasters

Last June, my peer-reviewed paper on problems with NOAA’s Billion Dollar Disaster (BDD) tabulation was published. Today, NOAA announced that the BDD tabulation would no longer be updated by the agency, explaining…

Ice Surprises
Article
The Honest Broker

Ice Surprises

Earlier this week the New York Post asked me to help its readers make sense of some surprising new research on ice dynamics at both poles. The new research appears in a…

The Underappreciated Importance of Climate Variability
Article
The Honest Broker

The Underappreciated Importance of Climate Variability

One of the most pervasive misunderstandings of climate — even among some who publish on climate — is the belief that any long-term trend in a measured climate variable indicates…

Surprise! Ice is Rebounding at BOTH Poles — Climate is More Complex Than We Know
Op-Ed
New York Post

Surprise! Ice is Rebounding at BOTH Poles — Climate is More Complex Than We Know

When it comes to climate change, to invoke one of Al Gore’s favorite sayings, the biggest challenge is not what we don’t know, but what we know for sure but…

Article
The Honest Broker

The Iberian Blackout

I’ve spent some time this week looking into the massive blackout that struck Spain and Portugal a few days ago, and today I share some of what I’ve learned. I…

Article
The Honest Broker

Constructing Climate Catastrophism

Today kicks off a new series here at THB — Making Sense of Climate Scenarios. I have three motivations for this series: This series is an exercise in transparency, with a…