September 6, 2024
Social and Physical Theories of Technological Stagnation
Among those who believe that technological change has stagnated, there are two broad categories. One social/institutional theory of stagnation, often associated with Peter Thiel, claims that the world has entered a period of technological stagnation due to avoidable social and institutional factors. Thiel and others in this camp argue that societies have chosen safety, regulation,…
August 30, 2024
Data Center Electricity Use V: Implications
Yesterday’s earnings announcement from Nvidia brings my data center electricity use series full circle: Its now-dominant data center segment increased revenue to $26.3 billion—more than 2½ times what that business generated a year earlier. Adjusted operating income for the quarter more than doubled year over year to $19.9 billion. Nvidia’s overall top and bottom lines beat Wall…
August 30, 2024
Lost in Space
More than 30 years ago I wrote a master’s thesis that evaluated NASA’s Space Shuttle program (you can read the publications that followed here and here). As I turned to my PhD dissertation, I decided to move on from human space flight. Over the years that followed I felt like there was something left unfinished from my work…
August 26, 2024
What Future for U.S.-China Science and Technology Collaboration?
On Tuesday this week the U.S.-China Science and Technology Agreement (STA) is due to expire unless the U.S. and China can agree on its extension. Today I provide some background on the agreement, why it is now being debated, and my view on what should happen next. STAs are a common tool of science diplomacy. The…
August 24, 2024
A RealClearEnergy Conference Well Worth Your Time
The Biden administration is a full-employment act for energy/environment policy analysts, in particular those interested in defending the market allocation of resources, the national wealth and freedom inherent in expansion of efficient energy technologies, and resistance to the diktats and impoverishment—the central anti-human stance—favored by the environmental left, the bureaucracy, and many “experts.” It is…
August 22, 2024
Data Center Electricity Use IV: Unrealistic Emissions Targets?
Large-scale, dynamic social and economic change is often more difficult, incremental, and slower than anticipated. Consider James Watt and Matthew Boulton in Birmingham in 1776, having invented and refined the double-acting steam engine. Watt patented the invention that year, a breakthrough that would ultimately become a hallmark of the British Industrial Revolution and propel its…
August 21, 2024
Billion Dollar Disasters: Not the Highest Standards
Last January, upon submission of my paper (since published) — Scientific integrity and U.S. “Billion Dollar Disasters” — I submitted a “request for correction” to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the agency’s policies for scientific integrity and information quality. Today, I heard back from NOAA and they largely agree with my concerns: “NOAA will…
August 20, 2024
Can We Childproof the Internet?
Child Online Safety bills are crafted with the intention of protecting minors from harmful content on the internet. However, they can infringe on First Amendment rights, affecting the freedom of speech and access to information, and cause other inadvertent harms. In this discussion, we explore the complexities and unintended consequences of age gating, including the…
August 19, 2024
What Did You Expect?
About 20,000 years ago, the world was in an ice age. The era is called the Last Glacial Maximum and had global sea levels more than 120 meters (~400 feet) lower than they are today, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). There was no North Sea, English Channel, or Persian Gulf, and Australia…
August 14, 2024
The Hidden Danger of Security Code Debt: Why Thorough Vetting Is Crucial Before Deployment
Last week’s headline, “Microsoft lashes out at Delta: Your ancient tech caused the service meltdown,” captures the frustration of the intertwined information technology infrastructure challenges. We’ve learned over the past three weeks how the fast-paced world of software updates and the pressure to release new features can overshadow the crucial need to keep security at the…