April 10, 2025
The Apocalypse Machine Rolls On
Climate scenarios are fundamental to climate research and policy. For more than a decade, one scenario dominated research informing discussions of climate among scientists and decision makers. Called RCP8.5, today that scenario is widely recognized as implausible, leading to apocalyptic portrayals of future climate change and providing an unreliable basis for policy analyses for adaptation and…
April 7, 2025
Behind the Curtain
Last month, climate scientist Kate Marvel, of NASA, shared “something I have really struggled with” about extreme event attribution. She was speaking as an invited expert in a public information-gathering session of the U.S. National Academy committee1 on extreme event attribution. Marvel, who also served at the lead author on the chapter on “Climate Trends” in the 2023 U.S. National…
April 4, 2025
A Policy Professor Grades Trump’s Trade Policies
For this first edition of THB Subscriber Questions (THBSQ#1) I am going to address one question asked by many readers. Anders Valland asks: Professor, now you know where it starts. What are your reflections on the new tariff regime? I’ll start with a disclaimer and some throat clearing — I do not research or publish in…
April 3, 2025
The Pacing Problem in Electricity
The electricity industry is undergoing an unprecedented transformation characterized by smaller-scale, decentralized, and digital technologies. But transitions are rarely easy. Significant challenges arise as the rapid pace of technological innovation exceeds the slower-moving evolution of regulatory institutions, creating what is known as the “pacing problem”. California, with its aggressive renewable energy policies and ambitious decarbonization…
March 31, 2025
Economics and Politics of Tariffs
In recent years, when teaching my senior policy capstone course I would often pivot the course on short notice to discuss current events, updating the readings on the syllabus, and often inviting guest lectures from relevant experts. Among such pivots were Covid-19, Russia-Ukraine, the U.S. elections, October 7th, and more. Part of my motivation of…
March 31, 2025
“Drill, Baby, Drill” is Nothing Short of a Myth and Populist Rallying Cry
Who uttered the quote that is the title of this post? A prominent climate activist, perhaps? Or maybe, a progressive Democratic member of Congress? No and no. The quote comes from a representative of a Texas-based oil and gas production firm last week to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its March Energy Survey. Here…
March 27, 2025
Global Energy Demand Set to Accelerate
The International Energy Agency has just published its Global Energy Review 2025. In this post I share the five most important take-aways I see in the report. I encourage you to have a look at the full report for IEA’s interpretation of its top conclusions. Let’s jump right in . . . Have a look at the figure…
March 20, 2025
Regional Transmission Organizations as Market Platforms V
In this RTO series, I’ve been exploring the decision-making processes and corporate governance structures within Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs), highlighting how these institutions perpetuate the control and decision-making power of incumbent investor-owned utilities (IOUs). Today, we’ll delve deeper by examining two critical, complementary insights: first, how monopoly regulation dilutes corporate governance incentives for IOUs, and…
March 20, 2025
Is Single Extreme Event Attribution Even Possible?
The U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) currently has a study committee on Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate Events and their Impacts. In this series — Weather Attribution Alchemy — I have previously discussed the committee’s many conflicts of interest. Today I discuss a crucial scientific question at the center of the committee’s work,…
March 12, 2025
“In Bad Faith”
The DC Court that heard the defaation case brought by climate scientist Michael Mann against two bloggers has ruled today that Mann and his lawyers acted in “bad faith” during the case, by presenting false claims on multiple occasions related to Mann’s grant funding: Here, the Court finds, by clear and convincing evidence, that Dr. Mann, through…