Amid the tolling of church bells and the joyous shouts of aspiring bureaucrats, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in December 1997 under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and officially was implemented 10 years ago this week. Under its terms, the parties committed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) 5 percent below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012; and by 18 percent or more below 1990 levels between 2013 and 2020. (Note that “the parties” comprised 37 industrialized nations and the European Community during the 2008-2012 period; as of this month, 24 countries have ratified the second commitment period.)
From the very beginning, skeptics — the “climate deniers” — have dismissed the prospect that the Kyoto Protocol might yield beneficial effects. And, indeed, at a superficial level, the agreement might appear to have been a failure: Far from declining, global GHG emissions by 2010 were about 33.6 billion tons, or 49 percent greater than the 22.5 billion tons emitted in 1990. That the preliminary figures for 2011 and 2012 are, respectively, 34.7 billion tons and 35.4 billion tons does not bode well for achievement of the commitments made for 2020. Nor does the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change itself offer much optimism about future emissions paths: Even a low emissions scenario (the B1 scenario group, at Figure 4 of the IPCC report) for 1990-2100 assumes average annual emissions of about 37 billion tons of GHG. A mid-range scenario (the B2 group) assumes average annual emissions of about 45 billion tons.
So: Is the Kyoto Protocol a failure, as argued by the climate deniers? Quite to the contrary: One only need look at the subsequent record in terms of temperatures and climate effects to see that the agreement in fact has proven itself in every dimension. After all, the political and policy struggle over climate policy is driven not by GHG emissions or concentrations per se. Instead, it is the purported effects of GHGs that are of interest. Recall the loud and confident predictions made repeatedly about the imminent and future adverse effects of increasing GHG emissions and atmospheric concentrations: Sharply rising temperatures. Rising sea levels. Shrinking polar ice covers. Increasing tornado activity. More frequent and intense tropical cyclones, stronger hurricanes, and increased tropical cyclone energy. More wildfires. More droughts. More flooding. A reduction in food production and an increase in malnutrition. And those are only a small sample. Without the predicted adverse effects in terms of temperatures and climate phenomena, increasing GHG emissions or concentrations by themselves would be of far less interest.
Accordingly, the real test of the Kyoto Protocol is the record on temperatures, storms, and all the rest since its implementation. In this far more relevant context, the Kyoto Protocol has been an unqualified success. Let us count the ways.
Temperatures: Since the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, the satellite temperature record essentially has been flat. Figure 1 illustrates the data for temperature anomalies from the 1981-2010 average.
Moreover, the Remote Sensing System satellite data show no land-ocean warming trend since before 1997 and since 2005, as illustrated in Figure 2.
The score thus far: Kyoto Protocol 1, Climate Deniers 0.
Sea levels: Recent research shows that the increase in global mean sea levels was roughly constant from the mid-1990s to 2004, and then declined after 2004. After adjusting for natural variability caused by such phenomena as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, annual increases in sea levels have been constant despite ever-greater concentrations of GHG, as illustrated in Figure 3:
The long-term record on sea levels is more difficult to interpret, as discussed here, but some data suggest that the rate of sea-level increase was much greater for many millennia until about eight thousand years ago, and then has been approximately constant at a much lower rate, as shown in Figure 4:
The score thus far: Kyoto Protocol 2, Climate Deniers 0.
Polar ice: Figure 5 shows that the Arctic ice cover is within two standard deviations of the 1981-2010 average, meaning that it does not differ from that average by a statistically significant amount. And it does not differ from the 2011-2012 record:
An interactive chart published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center shows that since the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol in 2005, only two years (2007 and 2012) displayed Arctic ice more than two standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average for several months. The Antarctic ice cover in both 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 exceeded the 1981-2010 average by two standard deviations or more, as shown in Figure 6:
The score thus far: Kyoto Protocol 3, Climate Deniers 0.
Tornadoes: There has been no trend in the frequency of strong (EF-3 to EF-5) tornadoes in the United States since 1954, as shown in Figure 7:
For the period 1970-2013, the data show downward trends in strong tornadoes as a percent of the total, as shown in Figure 8 and Figure 9, despite increasing emissions and concentrations of GHG.
For the period since 2005 — that is, since the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol — there has been no obvious upward trend in the number of tornadoes, in particular relative to the 2005-2014 average, as shown in Figure 10:
The score thus far: Kyoto Protocol 4, Climate Deniers 0.
Hurricanes and cyclone energy: It has been more than nine years since a category 3 or higher hurricane landed on a US coast; that long a period devoid of an intense hurricane landfall has not been observed since 1900. The 2013 and 2014 Atlantic hurricane seasons were among the least active in 40 years, with zero and two major hurricanes, respectively. There has been no trend in the frequency of tropical cyclones since 1970, as shown in Figure 11 below, and tropical cyclone energy is near its lowest level since reliable measurements began by satellite in the 1970s, as shown in Figure 12. Note that the trends are downward since 2005.
The score thus far: Kyoto Protocol 5, Climate Deniers 0.
Wildfires: As shown in Figure 13, the reported number of annual US wildfires is characterized by a sharp decline after 1982, due to an end to the requirement that states report their wildfire data on the federal tracking system. Accordingly, in the federal data, there has been essentially no trend since 1983, and a downward trend since 2005.
The score thus far: Kyoto Protocol 6, Climate Deniers 0.
Drought: The Environmental Protection Agency has published a chart showing the Palmer Drought Severity Index for the lower 48 states since 1895. It is Figure 1 at this EPA site; and Figure 14 as reproduced here. It shows essentially no trend since 1895 and since 2005.
The score thus far: Kyoto Protocol 7, Climate Deniers 0.
Flooding: Recent research reports that flooding in the United States over the last century has not been correlated with increases in GHG concentrations. As shown in Figure 15, the correlation does not differ from zero as a matter of statistical significance for the United States as a whole and for the northeast, southeast, and northwest regions. For the southwest, the correlation is negative — increasing GHG concentrations are correlated with reduced flooding — and statistically significant.
The score thus far: Kyoto Protocol 8, Climate Deniers 0.
Food production and undernourishment: United Nations index data (2004-2006=100.0) on world per-capita food production show a more-or-less monotonic increase for at least two decades, and since 2005, despite increasing emissions and concentrations of GHG, as shown in Figure 16:
The number of undernourished people has been declining more-or-less monotonically since 1992; and the same is true as a percent of the world population, as shown in Figure 17. Note again that the decline accelerates after 2005.
The final score: Kyoto Protocol 9, Climate Deniers 0.
In the Bizzaro world of the climate-change industry, GHG concentrations have been increasing, and the earth has been warming slightly, as illustrated in Figure 1 above. Accordingly, it is obvious that mankind is responsible; never mind that warming has been observed in fits and starts since the end of the little ice age around 1850. That no one knows how much of the recent warming has been caused by man is irrelevant: apocalypse is imminent notwithstanding the absence of actual evidence of adverse effects correlated with increasing GHG concentrations. And so why should the Kyoto Protocol not be viewed as a success? And similarly for the recent US-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change, despite the fact that the Chinese essentially disavowed it only a few weeks later. The same success will be claimed for the agreement forthcoming in Paris next December, despite the fact that no enforcement mechanism will be possible, and despite the fact that any such agreement even if enforced would have only trivial effects on temperatures by the year 2100. The costs of this game, on the other hand, are not trivial. Such are the fruits of government elites doing good and running amok. Post hoc ergo propter hoc. It works for me.
Benjamin Zycher is the John G. Searle scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.