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December 17, 2024
Economics of Grid Defection II
Last week I wrote about the grid defection discussion circa 2014, motivated by Elisa Wood’s webinar with Seyyed Ali Sadat and Joshua Pearce of Western Ontario University on their new paper in Solar Energy. Let’s pick up the story from 2014 and discuss the research leading up to their paper. Evolution of the Research In the ensuing…
December 12, 2024
Economics of Grid Defection I
Yesterday Elisa Wood hosted a webinar with Seyyed Ali Sadat and Joshua Pearce of Western Ontario University, who have a new paper: The threat of economic grid defection in the US with solar photovoltaic, battery and generator hybrid systems(Solar Energy, November 2024). Grid defection occurs when electricity customers generate and store enough power locally to become fully self-sufficient…
December 6, 2024
Recombinant Modularity and Technological Change
In the past couple of weeks I’ve read two things I want to recommend that are actually deeply related. The first is Brian Potter’s excellent history of technology analysis of the evolution of the lithium ion battery. Brian’s Construction Physics newsletter is a consistently excellent treasure trove of analysis, from his series on the history of the electricity…
November 7, 2024
History of Technology: Cheaper, Cleaner, Easier
Every fall since 2020 I have been teaching energy economics in Northwestern University’s Master of Science in Energy and Sustainability (MSES) program. I team teach with my friend Mark Witte, and my part of the course is backloaded—natural monopoly theory and regulation in theory and in history, new generation technology invention and adoption, wholesale power markets, digitalization…
October 24, 2024
Progress and Its Enemies
26 years ago, Virginia Postrel published The Future and Its Enemies, which I still consider one of the most insightful books of our time. The book’s subtitle, The Growing Conflict Over Creativity, Enterprise, and Progress, has become even more relevant since 1998. Virginia gave a presentation on the ideas in her book at the Progress Conference in Berkeley last…
September 27, 2024
The Institute for Regulatory Law & Economics
Today I’m traveling to the 2024 Institute for Regulatory Law & Economics Workshop for Regulators. The 2024 IRLE Workshop marks not only the 18th annual gathering of regulators and scholars, but also the 20th anniversary of IRLE’s founding. Over the past two decades, this workshop has evolved into a valued educational and translational research resource for regulators…
September 6, 2024
Social and Physical Theories of Technological Stagnation
Among those who believe that technological change has stagnated, there are two broad categories. One social/institutional theory of stagnation, often associated with Peter Thiel, claims that the world has entered a period of technological stagnation due to avoidable social and institutional factors. Thiel and others in this camp argue that societies have chosen safety, regulation,…
August 30, 2024
Data Center Electricity Use V: Implications
Yesterday’s earnings announcement from Nvidia brings my data center electricity use series full circle: Its now-dominant data center segment increased revenue to $26.3 billion—more than 2½ times what that business generated a year earlier. Adjusted operating income for the quarter more than doubled year over year to $19.9 billion. Nvidia’s overall top and bottom lines beat Wall…
August 22, 2024
Data Center Electricity Use IV: Unrealistic Emissions Targets?
Large-scale, dynamic social and economic change is often more difficult, incremental, and slower than anticipated. Consider James Watt and Matthew Boulton in Birmingham in 1776, having invented and refined the double-acting steam engine. Watt patented the invention that year, a breakthrough that would ultimately become a hallmark of the British Industrial Revolution and propel its…
August 2, 2024
Data Center Electricity Use III: Make or Buy?
The exponential growth of data centers, driven by the burgeoning demand for cloud services, AI computations, and big data analytics, has increased electricity consumption significantly. In the first two posts of this series, I discussed the increasing data center electricity use, its implications for the electric grid, and how those implications will differ over time…