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July 15, 2024
It’s Later Than You Think
Today, I discuss the concept of the “time of emergence” for the detection of a signal of a change in climate in observations and projections. Our early work in this area led to some surprising results (at least to me!) and profoundly shaped how I think about the detection and attribution of changes in the…
July 8, 2024
Schrödinger’s Climate Cat
In May, I testified before the Senate Budget Committee and summarized what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said about trends in drought. My testimony included the figure below showing a decrease in the areal extent of extreme drought conditions in the United States. I also included another figure that showed an increase in extreme drought conditions across the United States. Completing…
July 2, 2024
Climate Fueled Extreme Weather
It is now a ubiquitous cultural ritual to blame any and every weather event on climate change. Those hot days? Climate change. That hurricane? Climate change. The flood somewhere that I saw on social media? Climate change. With today’s post, the first in a series, I go beyond the cartoonish media caricatures of climate change,…
July 1, 2024
The End of Chevron Deference
In 1981, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), under Administrator Anne Gorsuch (the mother of Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch), decide to change how it defined a “source” of pollution under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977. An environmental group, the National Resources Defense Council (NRDC) petitioned the EPA in federal court arguing that there was a…
June 26, 2024
That’s AllotA Energy!
Later this week on Colorado’s beautiful Western Slope, I’ll be giving a keynote talk at an energy transition conference. The timing is perfect because I get to share some of my first analyses of the 2024 edition of the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy — an absolutely indispensable resource that was just released a few…
June 20, 2024
The Death of Environmentalism at 20
Twenty years ago, Michael Shellenberger and Ted Nordhaus “dropped” (in Ted’s words) an essay at the annual meeting of the Environmental Grantmakers Association titled, The Death of Environmentalism (DoE). The DoE prompted a vigorous debate about environmentalism in the United States that continues today. Here is how the New York Times characterized the reaction to the essay in 2005: The…
June 17, 2024
Billion Dollar Disasters on Steroids
Shortly after my paper Scientific integrity and U.S. “Billion Dollar Disasters” was accepted for publication, I was tipped off to a public but unnamed and well-hidden directory on the website of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that contained 17 (now 18) of the most recent versions of the “billion dollar disaster” (BDD) tabulation, dating to March 2020….
June 10, 2024
Climate Science is About to Make a Huge Mistake
Scenarios are fundamental to climate research and policy. As THB readers know better than most everyone, for years climate science and policy have been off trackin relying heavily on an outdated extreme emissions scenario called RCP8.5, one of four RCP scenarios developed starting almost two decades ago.(1) Some in the climate science community, though slow out of the…
May 11, 2024
Bullish on Solar
I was reminded, following last week’s post on challenges faced by wind energy, that some people seem to view energy technologies like football teams. They have their favorite, who they support no matter how bad the losing position. And of course they also have their arch rivals, to be cheered against no matter what. Above all,…