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June 4, 2025
What is a “Worst Case” Climate Scenario?
The implausibly extreme and hugely popular climate scenario RCP8.5 made it into President Trump’s executive order last week on “Restoring Gold Standard Science.” Ironically, the Trump administration’s characterization of RCP8.5 did not quite reach the “gold standard,” and maybe not even a “bronze standard. “ The EO states: [Federal a]gencies have used Representative Concentration Pathway…
June 4, 2025
The Intelligence of Things Is Here—Reflections from Google I/O 2025
Recently, I had the privilege of attending Google’s I/O developer conference with colleagues Will Rinehart and Shane Tews. The event featured (literally) 100 AI announcements and live demonstrations, including Waymo and Wing drone delivery. Reflecting on the two days, several themes emerged reshaping technology and society. AI Integration Everywhere Analyst Ben Thompson said he was…
June 4, 2025
What Economists Are Learning About AI, Jobs, and Local Economies
Conventional wisdom about artificial intelligence runs in two directions—utopian and dystopian. On one hand, we’re told that AI will usher in explosive productivity, endless efficiency, and new industries we can’t yet imagine. On the other hand, there are fears that machines will hollow out middle-class jobs, exacerbate inequalities, and perhaps even make large swaths of…
June 3, 2025
The Politicization of Intelligence, Part 2
In Part 1 of this two-part series I discussed the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and its role iin synthesizing and summarizing intelligence from across the U.S. government’s intelligence gathering agencies. Today, in Part 2 I take a broader look at the challenges of securing reliable intelligence in an environment characterized by ever-present politics. Intelligence in decision making “includes…
May 30, 2025
A Bitter Pill to Swallow: American Drug Shortages
While drug pricing has been a consistent focus for policymakers concerned about access to medicine, another significant barrier to care has grown: drug shortages. Drug shortages have become more prevalent, with causes ranging from problems at manufacturing facilities, compliance with regulation to unpredictable demand. An insufficiently profitable market, particularly for complex generic medicines, discourages investment…
May 30, 2025
Atlantic Hurricanes Preseason 2025
There has been no tropical cyclone of hurricane strength anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere so far in 2025. If we get to June 5th — which looks quite possible if not probable — then 2025 will have the latest date on record (since 1970) for the first NH hurricane, breaking the record of Ava, which…
May 30, 2025
A Tale of Two Satellite Broadband Policies: The US and South Africa
On Tuesday, technology writer Patience Haggin claimed that in the US, “rural internet is still so bad, some states are turning to outer space.” The article referred to the growing number of states rolling out satellite subsidies “that could be a boon to Elon Musk’s Starlink and another nascent service from Amazon.” These subsidies include…
May 29, 2025
Beyond infrastructure: Internet ecosystem resilience and the public good
Abstract Telecommunications networks have become one of modern society’s critical infrastructures (CIs): things required for everyday life and without which widespread disruption can be expected. Historically, the responsibility for ensuring the resilience of their own infrastructures has lain with the individual network operators. However, the complex ways in which economic and social systems now depend…
May 29, 2025
Twenty‑Five Years of Lessons on Electricity Competition in the United States
Why the Electricity Competition Debate Just Flipped—Again In 1998 California’s Power Exchange wholesale power market went live, symbolizing the then-new impetus for efficiency through electricity markets. The promise then was disarmingly simple: generation prices that reflected actual costs, customer choice, and an information revolution that would make your toaster as smart as your telephone. California, Pennsylvania, New…
May 28, 2025
Keeping Terrorists Off Airbnb Shouldn’t Undermine Americans’ Privacy
here’s a certain irony in completing the financial surveillance procedures the government requires Airbnb to impose on its hosts. Right along with snapping and submitting a selfie for automatic verification against the required government-issued identification, Airbnb occasionally asks for a guest’s country of citizenship, too. It is literally the United States, but is it really the…