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May 23, 2025

Heavy Metal

More than 7,000 years ago, humans first began mining copper. Since then, humans have mined more than 700 million tonnes. According to a fascinating study of the metals requirements of a net zero energy transition, the world will need to produce another 700 million tonnes of copper over the next 22 years. The study, by Simon Michaux of the…

May 20, 2025

The Politicization of Intelligence

Last week, Tulsi Gabbard, appointed by President Trump as the Director of National Intelligence, fired the top two officials of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) after The Washington Post and the New York Times reported that the Trump Administration had ignored the findings of its NIC related to its deportation efforts. Today, I explain what is going on, setting the stage…

May 19, 2025

Ten Provocative Graphs

The figures and data below are all hot of the press and shared to help get your weekend off to an intellectually stimulating start. Enjoy! The Earth is Darkening In a new posting, climate scientist James Hansen calls our attention to a “BFD”: Earth’s albedo (or reflectivity) is the portion (percent) of incoming solar radiation that…

May 14, 2025

The Future is Already Here Somewhere

One of the challenges, even for experts, in making sense of climate projections is that the scenarios underlying the projections are so complex as to be impenetrable without a lot of effort and expertise. Opaque assumptions make interpreting climate projections fraught with challenges and consequently, they are easily misinterpreted and misused. Today, I try to…

May 9, 2025

RIP NOAA’s Billion Dollar Disasters

Last June, my peer-reviewed paper on problems with NOAA’s Billion Dollar Disaster (BDD) tabulation was published. Today, NOAA announced that the BDD tabulation would no longer be updated by the agency, explaining that it has been “retired.” While some media have chosen to make the BDD retirement about the Trump administration, there has also been some excellent reporting indicating…

May 7, 2025

Ice Surprises

Earlier this week the New York Post asked me to help its readers make sense of some surprising new research on ice dynamics at both poles. The new research appears in a new peer-reviewed paper and a preprint that was just posted. At the South Pole, Wang et al. 2025 find a record accumulation of ice on the Antarctic…

May 7, 2025

The Underappreciated Importance of Climate Variability

One of the most pervasive misunderstandings of climate — even among some who publish on climate — is the belief that any long-term trend in a measured climate variable indicates a change in climate, as defined by the IPCC. In practice, “long-term” is often defined to be only a few decades worth of observations.  Some…

May 7, 2025

Surprise! Ice is Rebounding at BOTH Poles — Climate is More Complex Than We Know

When it comes to climate change, to invoke one of Al Gore’s favorite sayings, the biggest challenge is not what we don’t know, but what we know for sure but just isn’t so. Two new studies show that the Earth’s climate is far more complex than often acknowledged, reminding us of the importance of pragmatic…

April 29, 2025

Constructing Climate Catastrophism

Today kicks off a new series here at THB — Making Sense of Climate Scenarios. I have three motivations for this series: This series is an exercise in transparency, with a goal to open up discussion about what sorts of scenarios should sit at the center of climate science and policy. Sometime in the coming weeks…

April 21, 2025

Trump Comes for Climate Research

Last week Politico published a scoop related to climate research under the Trump Administration: The Trump administration is canceling funding for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the entity that produces the federal government’s signature climate change study, according to three federal officials familiar with the move. The move, which had been widely expected, is a potentially fatal…